The Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) researher’s in Delhi have developed a web-based dashboard tool for predicting the spread of COVID-19 in India.
The mobile-friendly dashboard , PRACRITI gives detailed State-wise and district-wise predictions of COVID-19 cases in India for a three-week period, which is updated on a weekly basis and tell and the facts and figures.
This platform will be highly useful for healthcare organisations as well as local and central authorities to efficiently plan for different future scenarios, resource allocation to identify proper hotspot area.
Researchers said that a key parameter of interest on COVID-19 is the basic reproduction number (R0), pronounced ‘R naught’ and its countrywide variability. “R0 defination is to number of people to whom the disease spreads from a single infected person like comminity transmition. For instance, if an active COVID-19 patient infects two uninfected persons, the R0 value is two. Reduction of R0 is the only key factor in controlling and mitigating COVID-19 in India,” the researchers added.
N.M. Anoop Krishnan, Department of Civil Engineering , IIT Delhi, said: “Getting the district-wise R0 value is crucial as this will enable authorities to know the exact rate of spread in India. The three-week prediction provided by the dashboard will provide immense help to policymakers for planning strategic interventions for controlling COVID-19 spread.
The model also accounts for the effect of different lockdown scenarios such as the effect of locking down district boundaries, and implementing different levels of lockdown within a district. The distinguishing feature of the model, the institute said, is the inclusion of the effect of movement of population across district/State boarders in the spread of COVID-19.